Candid photo from a simpler time. Light test during a shoot downtown when grabbing a coffee and randomly running into 2 friends was the norm (both happened right after this shot).

So where do we go from here?  This is a question I’ve been asking myself a lot lately.  In terms of my family (Will all of my family stay healthy?  Will my daughter get to start preschool in the fall?).  And in terms of my passions (What will happen to the business of fashion?).

Today’s Fashion Friday is dedicated to the business of fashion and what’s going to happen to the economy.

The Business of Fashion

Fashion employs 1 in 6 people.  That’s more than agriculture; more than defense.

We all have to get dressed each day.  And we all pay taxes.  So while there are clearly more important parts of the Coronavirus pandemic to focus on, the business of retail and the state of the economy affects us all.

Consumer Behavior

After tragic events, consumers usually follow a path.  The first phase is the cocoon phase.  All purchases are frozen.  Then we move into what economists call Secular Immortality.  We become keenly aware of our own mortality and begin emotional/bored shopping.

“You only live once.”

And retailers need this stimulus.  It’s not just small businesses that are suffering.  Large corporations are feeling the squeeze too.

Companies like JC Penney, The Gap, Victoria’s Secret (the list goes on) who are already in financial trouble, will be greatly impacted.  It may be their final nail in the coffin.

What we need to understand is that this isn’t just going to be a blip and affect 2020’s sales.  This will affect generations.  We won’t see recovery for years.

The way we consume will change even more

With brick & mortar stores closed indefinitely, retailers will need to find new ways to reach consumers.  They can no longer offer 1:1 personalized customer service.  Can this be achieved in an online chat?  Perhaps.

I’m interested in what Indie designers are doing.  Several of them have begun archive sales.  This means they are making past collections (previously unavailable for purchase) available.

As a collector, this is especially intriguing.  I now have a second chance to snag the one that got away.

Clothing Rental Services

I’ve written about my experience with Nuuly, and while I loved it, I’m sorry to say these services are now moot.  No one has anywhere to go.  We can’t leave the house.  Events have been canceled.  Do people really need to rent business or special occasion attire right now?  No.

So what happens to companies like Rent the Runway and Nuuly?  Will they survive?

How will this affect luxury?

I’ve talked before about Amazon’s push into luxury by offering a concession model to designer brands.  While their 10-year pursuit into luxury has always been rebuffed, the Coronavirus may be the linchpin that changes the game.

Take Chanel for example.  You cannot purchase Chanel RTW or accessories online.  You must shop in-store or through an online consigner like The RealReal.

With no shelter-in-place end date in sight, Chanel may have to use a concession model via Amazon in order to keep sales moving.

Once we do rebound, don’t expect luxury purchases to be flashy.  Those that can afford it will opt for “quiet luxury”.  Think minimalistic, non-logoed pieces.  Luxury brands like Gucci may see a temporary decline in sales while brands like The Row and Deveaux may soar.

I’d keep your eye on China.  As the biggest consumer of luxury, their consumer actions will be telling.  Since they were also the first country to be affected by the Coronavirus, they will also be the first to come out of it.  Their rebound behavior will likely dictate the luxury market’s success (or failure).

The Bottom Line

This affects us all.  And not just us, but the generations behind us.  Support local business and indie designers where you can.  If not monetarily, then through word-of-mouth endorsements, support on social media (follow, like, comment), etc.

And remember that we’re all in this together.  This too shall pass.